Paul Tudor Jones with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Show: Invest Like the Best
Cleaned and reformatted from published transcript or auto-generated captions — punctuation added, filler removed, restructured for readability. Not verbatim. For exact quotes, refer to the original.
Patrick O'Shaughnessy
There was something we talked about when we last met that made me laugh, and I thought it would be a fun place to begin. It was about the difference between being an investor and being a trader, and you mentioned you wished you could be an investor — that life would be so easy. I'd love you to describe the difference between the two and the life of a trader.
Paul Tudor Jones
I promise I'll do that, and we'll talk about markets and AI and everything. And at the end you'll say, 'Were you not entertained?' and I bet you'll say yes. But of all the things you do on your podcast, the one I think is most important — if you don't mind — I'd love to start with the question you ask everyone at the end.
Paul Tudor Jones
The reason is this. I gave a commencement address one time at what is now Rhodes College in Memphis. When I was writing it, I was sitting there thinking, 'Damn, who gave my commencement address?' And I couldn't remember. No one remembers. I was getting ready to talk for 15 or 20 minutes, and no one was going to remember a damn thing. How do I make it special? So on this podcast — people listen to millions of them and can only remember fractions — if there's anything they remember from this, I hope it's this part.
Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Everyone who listens knows the question is: what is the kindest thing anyone's ever done for you?
Paul Tudor Jones
It's a great question, because the kindest thing was also my very first childhood memory. I was probably two and a half or three — around 1957. I was with my mother at a place called the Curb Market, an outdoor vegetable market, and I got separated from her. You can imagine being that age and separated from your mother — you're terror-stricken. I was bawling my eyes out because I thought she'd left me. And this elderly Black gentleman came up and said, 'What's the matter, little boy?' I said, 'I lost my mama.' He said, 'Don't you worry, we're going to find her.' He grabbed my hand and we walked up and down the aisles. I can almost still smell the fruits and vegetables. We come around the corner and I see my mother. She starts laughing so hard, and she gets me and tries to give the man five dollars, which in 1957 was a huge amount of money. And he said, 'No, ma'am. I know you'd do that for my child, too.'
Paul Tudor Jones
It was such a simple act of kindness, but so profound. That night I had a prayer list with my mother that we went through every night. I said, 'What was that man's name?' She said, 'I never got his name.' So for the next 10 or 12 years, that man was in the prayer list. Probably four or five thousand reps, every night, for that man.
Paul Tudor Jones
Now fast forward to 1986. I'm living in New York, 32 years old, lying on my couch watching 60 Minutes, and Harry Reasoner is interviewing a businessman named Eugene Lang. Lang had gone back to give the commencement address at his elementary school in Harlem, which over 60 years had transformed into a community almost entirely of people of colour. He asked the principal how many of these 12-year-olds were going to college. The principal said maybe eight or nine per cent. Lang couldn't believe it, because he'd graduated from that school and done very well. So right on the spot he decided: I'm going to promise every one of these kids that if they graduate from high school, I'll put them through college. He adopted that class and created the 'I Have a Dream' programme.
Paul Tudor Jones
That resonated with me so much. I said, 'I can do that.' The next day I called him. He said, 'It's funny — three or four other people have called, and we're all meeting at my apartment Tuesday night.' I got there late, and I ended up with Bed-Stuy, the highest-crime community in New York at the time, even higher than the Bronx. I put my heart and soul into it. I went to the commencement of an elementary school, told the kids that if they graduated from high school I'd put them through college. That began a journey for the next 14 years, adopting successive classes.
Paul Tudor Jones
Along the way I learned so much by failing. About three years in, the kids weren't doing that great, so I started hiring tutors. Then one kid got killed, some of the girls became teenage moms — I was dealing not just with academic challenges but social ones. And 1987, the year after, was when Robin Hood started. As we built Robin Hood out — applying metrics, goals, standards — it also led me to start one of the first charter schools in the late '90s, right next to that spot in Bed-Stuy. We called it the Bedford-Stuyvesant Charter School of Excellence, because I wanted those boys to know we would demand excellence of them. Within four or five years, we were number one out of 543 elementary schools in New York City. The point is: you can have all the passion in the world, but you have to have a plan and a great pedagogy.
Paul Tudor Jones
Why is all this relevant? Here was one simple act of kindness — an elderly Black man helping a young white boy. And when I saw Harry Reasoner and that elderly man helping those young kids, it was the photo negative of what had happened to me. One simple act of kindness can have waves of betterment — so transformative and so multiplicative. There's no doubt in my mind that four thousand reps of thanking that man inspired me to emulate it. Imagine if 350 million Americans intentionally set out every day for one simple act of kindness. It doesn't have to be big. And to the young people listening: all this demonisation and attack mode we're in didn't exist before about 2000. It's not the way we were raised. There was a much higher level of civility and respect, and down the road we'll get back to it.
Patrick O'Shaughnessy
That's an absolutely incredible story — maybe my favourite version of that answer I've ever had. What was the message in the commencement speech you ultimately gave?
Paul Tudor Jones
I got up on the dais and said, 'How many of you remember your own college commencement address?' Not one of them could. I love to hunt and fish, so I went through the normal challenges they'd face in life, and I wanted to say something memorable. Right at the end I said, 'So whatever you do —' and I pulled out my bow and knocked an arrow — 'aim high and shoot straight.' The whole crowd went, 'Woo!' I had an apple on a table and smashed it. I told the president of the university beforehand, 'You don't have to tackle me.' I was just trying to give them a night they'd remember.
Patrick O'Shaughnessy
It's the perfect excuse to ask my other question, about the difference between investing and trading. I'd love you to explain the life of a trader in contrast to that of an investor.
Paul Tudor Jones
I started in 1976 on the floor of the commodity pits. Inflation was raging. Stuff was literally doubling and cutting in half every year — the volatility was insane. To give you an example: Bunker Hunt was squeezing silver at the time. He'd bought about 200 million ounces at an average of around three dollars twelve. Between 1976 and 1980 we had crazy monetary policy, inflation ripped, and silver went through the roof. I bought a membership on COMEX, the metals exchange, and got in the pit executing orders. By 1979 silver was around 30 dollars an ounce, and Hunt was suddenly worth five or six billion — three times the next closest person on earth. Someone asked what he'd do with all that silver. He said, 'I'm going to bury it. In fact, I'm going to buy 20 million more ounces and bury that too.' He buys 20 million ounces at 35 bucks, and it roofs to 50. At 50 he's worth about 11 billion.
Paul Tudor Jones
Then COMEX decided the commercials had been eradicated — they were holding physicals and couldn't meet the margin every day — so they made it liquidation only. Silver collapsed from 50 dollars to under 10 in about eight weeks. Watching him go from the richest guy in the world to virtually bankrupt in six or seven weeks had a searing impact on me. Right then and there I decided I'd never own — or trust — anything for the rest of my life. My grandfather used to say, 'Son, you're only worth what you can write a check for tomorrow.' Liquidity was in my DNA. In my early trading days I had a ten-thousand-dollar account and I'd run it to a hundred thousand and back down to zero. I had a friend we called 'the mortician' — he'd get an account with ten grand, churn a hundred thousand in commissions, take it to a million, and then have it in deficit. You learned that liquidity mattered, because the volatility was off the chart.
Paul Tudor Jones
One of my mentors, who got me into trading, taught a class on investments in Virginia and asked me to guest-lecture. I started in '82 and I've done it every semester since. I'd ask the class who the richest people in the world were — back then Bill Gates and Warren Buffett — and how they got there. My point was: they got there by riding a trend for the long run. That's my number one bullet point — you're going to make your money by riding a trend for the very, very longest time. There are many ways to achieve it. You can own a company like Bill Gates or Steve Jobs, or you can be like Warren Buffett — one of those value investors who won't spend a nickel.
Paul Tudor Jones
I used to sit there and rail on Warren Buffett year after year, and congratulate myself for trashing him. I'd say he just happened to be in the right place at the right time and caught this bull market. If he'd been in Japan — if he'd started in 1989 in the Nikkei — forget it, never would have happened. Right place, right time, bull market genius.
Paul Tudor Jones
This will be my 50th year. The difference between my trading and investing is that our BVI fund, over 40 years, has a minus-point-one-two correlation with the S&P 500. So 100 per cent of our returns are alpha. And I'd think, 'Why couldn't I be Warren Buffett? Just believe in America, and when you're down 50 per cent, who cares, because America's going to bring you through.' Not that he doesn't work as hard as any human being — but it's that belief system. I feel like I'm a right guard in the NFL, and I've been a right guard for 50 years, fighting in the trenches every single day. I've always envied his belief system. But I'd have had huge difficulty being in Warren's shoes in 2008 and 2009 with a 50 per cent drawdown. I don't think I have his calm and patience and fortitude.
Paul Tudor Jones
I was listening to the Acquired podcast on Berkshire Hathaway, and for the first time I learned that at nine years old he understood the power of compound interest. I just went, 'Oh my God, this guy is a genius, and I've been the biggest fool.' I've always wanted to write a book called What I Realise Now, going through the successive mistaken beliefs of my lifetime. What I realise now is what an idiot I was — that guy is a flipping genius, because he understood the power of compound interest, which I somehow managed brilliantly to avoid my entire career. He understood it at nine. At 17 he went to Columbia and sought out Benjamin Graham. And the great thing is he was smart enough to partner with Charlie Munger. Charlie was a tremendous genius in his own right — where Warren would buy fifty-cent dollars, Charlie understood the power of compounding for companies that were growing all the time. What a combination. So Warren, if you happen to hear this, I'm deeply apologetic. You are the OG of compound interest, and I wish I was one-tenth as smart as you are.
Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Didn't you talk to him about what he thought about AI soon thereafter?
Paul Tudor Jones
You cannot be a trader, investor, whatever term we use, and not be a really good risk manager. Anyone who's really succeeded is first and foremost a great risk manager. I went to a conference about 18 months ago and was so alarmed by what I heard that I mentioned it on CNBC. Buffett watches CNBC every day, and he sent me a note saying, 'I agree with you 100 per cent, but the genie's out of the bottle. I don't know if we can get it back in.'
Paul Tudor Jones
The problem with AI is the way it's being deployed right now — the build, break, iterate model. Build it, break it, fix it, iterate. That's been the invention model since the beginning of man. But we've never been in a situation where the tail event, the break, can do so much damage.
Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Could be hundreds of millions, if not billions, of lives.
Paul Tudor Jones
At that conference there were maybe 35 or 40 people, with one modeller from each of the four biggest model companies. When I asked them pointedly how they thought AI safety gets resolved, the consensus answer was, 'I think we'll finally do something about it when 50 or 100 million people die in an accident.' It's crazy. My big problems with AI are: one, there's no plebiscite on this. There's no vote, no way for the public to say yea or nay on the pace. When the nuclear bomb was dropped, 18 months later our Congress and administration were forward-thinking enough to create the Atomic Energy Commission to regulate something with huge tails. Here we are three years in, and there's nothing. If there ever was a leadership position that needs to be taken by any president, it's on AI regulation right now — not just in the United States, but convening with China and all the other purveyors. And that's just the safety side, not the social disruption. Matt Shumer came out with a lengthy essay on how the two new models released six days ago are going to be unbelievably disruptive to the workforce. If this had anything to do with inside Tudor, it would have been contained long ago. That's what a good risk manager does, and yet there's zero risk management here.
Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Given that great investors and traders are great risk managers, how do you think about this exogenous variable lurking?
Paul Tudor Jones
The simplest, most important thing we can do — it should be part of the next election — is demand that all AI is watermarked. That's the single most transformative thing we could do for the country and the world. Make it a felony if someone knowingly violates it three times, and put them in jail. I want to know what's authentically human and what's not. Talk about restoring trust in the country. Twice since this year began, very serious people have called me and said, 'Did you see XYZ?' — and it turned out to be a deep fake. At that conference, a significant portion of the scientists envisioned a future where humanity has a chip in the brain to access knowledge and power. So we really need to know what we're reading and looking at, because that group, without any feedback from the rest of America, thinks a blended human-and-machine is perfectly acceptable, is the future, should have inalienable rights. I don't think that's the case. I'd vote no, and I think most humans would vote no.
Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Coming back to these themes, I know you learned a lot from Eli Tullis. What did he teach you, and was there a specific episode that taught you the biggest lesson?
Paul Tudor Jones
He was so strong. He was really good at executing at the maximum apogee of fear as well as greed. He traded hardly anything but cotton, and he could just wait for exactly when there was too much elation or too much fear. The number one thing I learned from him: we were so long cotton one weekend, and there was a spectacular drought — of course it rained all through the belt over the weekend. We walk in and the market's limit down. He'd gotten absolutely smashed. I thought, 'Oh my God, it's over.' That day for lunch his wife brought in four of her friends, and he came out with a smile on his face, flirting with the wives. I was sitting there thinking, 'Are you kidding me? This guy just got broke and he's acting like Rock Hudson.' When the going gets tough, the tough get going. You wear it here, and you have the confidence you're going to come back. Hugely important.
Patrick O'Shaughnessy
It feels like the right time to ask what trading means to you. I mostly interview investors who buy stakes in companies. I very rarely interview someone putting on major positions across asset classes. What is the literal act you're doing every day with such excellence?
Paul Tudor Jones
A couple of metaphors come to mind. Start with boxing, because you have an opponent — in this case the market — who's after you the whole time. I'm thinking of a classic fighter, not a Mike Tyson. You're jabbing, feeling each other out, looking for an opening. Every now and then you get a great opening and you take a big shot. If I think about big shots: Bitcoin in 2020, a knockout. Two-year rates in 2022, a knockout. You get these incredible opportunities if you sit and wait the whole time in the interim. Most of it you're just gathering information, trying to win the round — but there'll be those few opportunities where you can do something really material.
Patrick O'Shaughnessy
I love the boxing analogy. Pick one of those windows and tell me what you're literally doing — what you're looking at, what supply-demand imbalance you see.
Paul Tudor Jones
The really big moves usually come because the market has got too carried away, or an imbalance has gone on too long, or a central bank or government does something it shouldn't. Typically it's inspired by a central bank or central government. A good one in the making right now is dollar-yen. The yen's grossly undervalued and has been for some time. The question is: what's the catalytic moment? And that catalytic moment was Japan's new prime minister, just elected. She has the characteristics of a Ronald Reagan or Margaret Thatcher, or Donald Trump the second time — and when those leaders got elected, their local currencies appreciated 10 per cent off the bat. Japan has a four-and-a-half-trillion-dollar net international investment position, probably 60 per cent of it in the US and most of it unhedged. So they have a massive dollar liability, and now the most dynamic leader in half a century is going to remake that economy Japan-first. You're looking for something under-owned, undervalued, way out of whack, where people have got complacent — and then you wait for that catalytic moment.
Paul Tudor Jones
With the two-year rates in '22, we had way too much fiscal stimulus, and Powell overstayed being easy way too long because he wanted Biden to reappoint him. As soon as Biden reappointed him, it was go time to get short two-year notes, because you knew the Fed was going to normalise. And in 2020, with all the interventions from the central bank and the treasury, you knew the inflation trades were going to take off — and the best one was Bitcoin. Bitcoin is unequivocally the best inflation hedge there is, more than gold, because it's finite; there's only so much that can be mined. The problem is, if you got into a kinetic exchange, there's going to be cyber warfare, and anything electronic is going down, including Bitcoin — strike one. And secondly, quantum computing: with AI advancing as fast as it is, someone could hack any bank and anything they want. But in terms of scarcity value, gold's supply increases a couple of per cent a year, whereas Bitcoin has a finite amount and is decentralised — so it has the greatest scarcity value of anything.
Patrick O'Shaughnessy
You're famous for 1987. Say a little about the big bubbles you've lived through, and how those lessons apply to today. Are we in a bubble?
Paul Tudor Jones
If I think of the really big accidents, most have the same underlying foundation: too much leverage somewhere, and most of the time it was derivative-inspired, futures or options. The 1987 crash was 100 per cent portfolio insurance. Had they had limits, which they didn't, it would have been a 10 or 15 per cent move at most. In 1998, Long-Term Capital had a huge balance sheet with a lot of derivatives they were offside on. 2000 was different — the easiest bear market I've ever seen. The bear market of 2001 and 2002 was a consequence of all the IPOs in '99 and 2000: as they unlocked, you had a never-ending cascade of selling.
Patrick O'Shaughnessy
A cascade of selling — that's a great way of putting it.
Paul Tudor Jones
And we're getting ready for the same thing. The contemplated IPOs over the next year are going to be five or six per cent of market cap. Why are we where we are right now? Because we've been retiring two or three per cent of market cap every year, without fail, for the past 10 years — through buybacks. Now you're going to completely reverse that math. It doesn't happen instantaneously, but then there'll be the unlocks. You could see a rolling top, and 18 months from now you'll have to watch the unlock schedule, because that adds equity supply just as the buybacks diminish — all the hyperscalers' commitment to capex is going to eat into their cash flow. That's why tech has dogged it and will continue to.
Paul Tudor Jones
When you ask if we're in a bubble — I don't know if we're necessarily in one, but we're clearly so leveraged in equities in this country, so dependent on firm equity prices. We're at 252 per cent of stock market cap to GDP. In 1929, at the top, we were about 65 per cent. In '87 we got to 85 or 90. In 2000 we got to 170, and now we're at 252. If you think about the periodicity of significant bear markets since 1970, we get a mean reversion about every 10 years — say a reversion to the past 25-or-30-year PE. That would be a 30 to 35 per cent decline. Well, 35 per cent on 250 per cent of GDP is 80 or 90 per cent of GDP in reverse wealth effect. Ten per cent of our tax revenues are capital gains — they go to zero. So you can see the budget deficit blowing up, the bond market getting smoked, this negative self-reinforcing effect. It's troubling.
Paul Tudor Jones
So are we in a bubble? We're clearly in a sovereign-debt bubble. In the stock market we're over-equitised as a country, with the highest individual equity weightings in our history. And the real problem is that private equity was about 7 per cent of institutional portfolios in 2007-08; now it's about 16. Real estate's gone up, infrastructure bets have gone up — we're so much less liquid than we were in 2008, so you have to be cognisant of that when you think about how your money is deployed. A friend who's a wealth manager asked me what I'd tell someone investing for 20 years — expecting me to say, 'Just buy the S&P and close your eyes.' The problem is, if you buy the S&P at a PE of 22, the 10-year return is negative — that's what history shows. The S&P is a spectacular long-term hold if you have a hundred-year view, but that's an average that includes times when the PE was six, seven, eight. Valuation matters a lot, and it's going to be really hard to make money from here on any long-term view.
Patrick O'Shaughnessy
If I shadowed you today, what does a day look like?
Paul Tudor Jones
I get up at about 6:15, work until 7, then work out until 7:45 — I try to do 45 minutes of hard cardio every day. I'm in front of the screens for the opening, no meetings until 10, then meetings until noon, lunch with someone, a meeting after lunch. I make sure I have an hour before the close and an hour after to map out what I want to do the next day, because I want to have a plan — and to think about what's going to happen that night in Tokyo and Hong Kong. I go home around 5, walk with my wife for an hour, work for an hour, come back and eat. I used to read a book and a half a week, but once the internet came I'm so tired of reading by nighttime — I've read one book in the last year. It's by David Woo, a newsletter writer, on globalisation and markets — I bet it becomes a Netflix series. Then I'll work from 9:30 to 10:15 and go to bed. Then I'll wake at 2:30 or 3, work for half an hour, watch the London open, do a lot of analytical work — it's a good quiet time — then go back to sleep and wake at 6:15.
Patrick O'Shaughnessy
And you've been doing that for 50 years.
Paul Tudor Jones
Certainly since the '80s. I feel like I work so much harder than I did 30 or 40 years ago, because there's more information — I get 800,000 emails a day. When I was a pit trader, even in the '80s, there was so much less information; I could spend more time focusing intently on what the highs and lows were going to be that day, which are really important for execution. Doing what my boss Eli did — waiting, paying attention, focusing. Are we at a point of maximum pain? Is there so much fear that it's a great time to buy? Does it look like it's going up forever, so it's a great time to sell? You have to be intentional to pick those points in a day, especially when you're trading 25 different instruments. If there are 48 emails coming in at the same time, all potentially actionable, the information overload distracts from exquisite execution.
Patrick O'Shaughnessy
What does that mean, exquisite execution?
Paul Tudor Jones
Am I buying when there's blood on the ground, and am I selling when there's complete elation? Take last Friday, when we had the largest down day in the history of gold and silver. When you have a 33 per cent move in silver in one day, you have to be so focused on that day's activity — what you'll do on the opening, what you'll do if the price moves through a level you weren't anticipating. It gets back to what I learned in Bed-Stuy: you'd better have a plan ahead of time, and it had better be self-executing. I hear it from my macro-trader friends — they say, 'I just feel like I'm two or three hours late,' and last Friday was a great example.
Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Doing that day in, day out, there has to be an enormous amount of passion for markets. Can you talk about the importance of passion in a life's work?
Paul Tudor Jones
When we talk about great traders — alpha generators, not investors — we had a dinner about a year ago with four or five of my best risk-takers, and we debated whether great traders are born or made. There was unanimous agreement that 70 per cent of it is nature. By the time I was 21 I loved games — chess, backgammon, Parcheesi, Monopoly, gin rummy, you name it. Then I started gambling in college; I had a degree in probability theory and had never taken a math course on it, but I knew it. If I had to pick the number-one traits: type-A personality, incredibly curious and inquisitive, and loves competition and games — because our whole business is just another form of probability theory. I still play bridge with my friends all the time; I can't get enough of it.
Paul Tudor Jones
The other reason I love trading: my wife's Australian, and when we married in 1989 she said, 'When our last child graduates from college, you're taking me to the beach.' So in 2014 we ended up in Palm Beach. She makes me go see a GP, and this guy's 83. I say, 'You're living in the land of the walking dead — what's the secret to longevity?' He says, 'It's real simple. You retire, you die.' That had a profound impact on me. If you don't use it, you're going to lose it. That's why I try to work out two hours a day, and it's another reason I enjoy trading — I want to keep my mind sharp, because there are too many things I want to do in my 90s. My father lived to be 100. And the other reason I really enjoy trading is I'd like to make an absolute pot of money so I can give it away. I have so many causes I want to give it to that it feels like the pursuit of nobility. It's a privilege to wake up, and I just hope I freaking kill it, so I can give it away.
Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Can you tell us the story of starting Robin Hood? It's an important part of your life and legacy.
Paul Tudor Jones
Robin Hood happened the day after the crash. Maybe the worst macro call of my life was thinking we were going into a depression — I'd been looking at the parallels with 1929 for a year, and I thought, this is a perfect analog. So I called up my friends and we began it. It's been the most marvellous journey. The best part of philanthropy is the people you meet — the greatest, most giving people, who embody the best ideals. There really weren't any charities focused on fighting poverty at the time. I've always believed if you want to do something, you're better off doing it yourself. So we started small and applied basic business principles to find the most efficacious way of helping people in need. I was learning by doing, making mistakes, and I realised this is a science. We hired the very best people we could, and it was so easy to recruit people from the financial world. The '90s were a special time — everyone wanted to participate and give back. After the crash, everyone found their significance by helping others, and the whole hedge fund community in New York supported Robin Hood in a spectacular way.
Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Thinking about the whole world, what feels healthiest to you today, and where does it feel most fragile?
Paul Tudor Jones
I'm trying to fast-forward to the workless world, where AI does so much for us that we don't have to work. I used to have a really negative outlook on that, because so many of us define our significance through our work. Imagine that huge component of human happiness being taken away because we don't have to work. As someone who works all the time and finds his significance in it, I used to despair. But I've become more optimistic recently, because when I think about how athletes find significance in their sport, or how I find significance competing at bridge with my friends, maybe humans are adaptable enough to find a different way. Maybe it's the intentional simple act of kindness every day. As a race we're so unbelievably adaptable and so smart that we might find a way to be happy. But that's going to be the biggest challenge, potentially in four or five years: what do we do when so many of our jobs have been replaced by AI?
Patrick O'Shaughnessy
You've written a lot about the power of great communication as an essential skill, and journalism as a way of learning it. Can you talk about that as a message to young people?
Paul Tudor Jones
I have long maintained that, better than a business school degree, Journalism 101 — newspaper writing in particular — should be mandatory in every college. My father had a small trade-finance legal paper in Memphis with a 2,500-person subscription. I was the copy editor, the front-page editor, and I wrote for it. What newspaper writing teaches you is to put the conclusion first. The most important part is in the first sentence of the first paragraph — who, what, where, when, why and how — and the first paragraph is no more than two sentences. It's a principal component analysis of whatever event transpired, putting the most important stuff at the beginning. In today's world, where attention spans are short and time is money, you want to communicate your entire point in the shortest amount of time. There's an old saying: if you can't tell your story in 15 seconds or less, no one's going to listen. If you're getting a thousand emails a day, I want to know in the first paragraph whether I want to keep reading.
Paul Tudor Jones
As a macro thinker, it helped me frame every trading decision. There are so many variables in a trading decision — say 10 really important things. Every one of them will have its day; it rotates through in terms of importance. The yen's a great example: undervalued for 24 months, way offside, ripe to rally, but it needed a catalytic moment — the new prime minister. So the thing everyone's ignored suddenly goes to the very top of the list. Newspaper style is hugely important in developing any logic framework: what's the most important thing that's actionable at this second in that particular instrument, what's my checklist, and how do I hierarchise it. That's literally what trading is all about.
Patrick O'Shaughnessy
If I asked you to do that on the topic of the principal components of a great life, how would it read?
Paul Tudor Jones
God, family, friends — and when I think of friends I think of fun — so God, family, friends, fun, and service. My significance is not going to come from being a trader. First and foremost it's my family. Every now and then I get joy out of thinking about my funeral, because I'm so excited about the songs I've chosen; I almost wish I could be alive for it. When I look back at the end of my life, I'm not going to be thinking about the '87 crash or Bitcoin. I'm going to be thinking about who I loved and who loved me, what kind of relationships and times we had. The professional aspects are great tools that let you do more meaningful things. What have you done with your family, with your friends? How have you served others? And when I say legacy, I don't mean words — I mean deeds. What have you done that allowed other people to better their station and their happiness in life? That's the most significant thing by far.
Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Do you always believe in God?
Paul Tudor Jones
I have trouble at times — yes, I do, but my faith is tested, like anybody's. I wish I could say with 100 per cent certainty I know I'm going to heaven. The reason I think it's so important for us all to have God in our lives is that you have to have some code by which you live. Christianity, Judaism, a variety of these have wonderful ways of bringing stability, order and goodness into people's lives. They give you something you can lead a productive and sustainable life with, that lets you engage with everyone around you with great happiness and joy.
Paul Tudor Jones
And it's taken me 70 years to get to this point: my new thing is that I love to find peak spring and peak fall. It doesn't have to be Africa — you can find that day in your own neighbourhood, when the colours are vibrant and the fragrance is overwhelming, to the minute in the right place. I've never felt so alive. I now travel the United States for that moment. The northeast is the best in fall because it has the greatest biodiversity — you can see the colour changes tree by tree, and you find that day at the intersection of the change. Make sure you're walking that afternoon before sunset. You can feel God at those moments.
Patrick O'Shaughnessy
I've never asked you a general-advice question — it's kind of a lame question — but I'm tempted to close there. This audience is passionate, curious, competitive, searching for their thing. What would you tell them, based on the sum total of your life?
Paul Tudor Jones
My mother used to say — and I think it's what this country needs right now — you've just got to kill them with kindness. You're going to wake up someday in a bad mood; something on TV is going to make you angry. And in these times, when everyone wants to demonise the opposition, we've got to realise it doesn't have to be that way. We can humbly devote ourselves to finding the kindness and goodness within ourselves and transmitting it to somebody else during the day. That's the secret to happiness — you don't have to worry about yourself, you have to worry about how you're going to brighten someone else's day. Everything is about the reps. Pretty soon your 'I shoulds' become 'I ams.' Take the mentality that you want to do one wonderful act of kindness for someone else, and pretty soon you become an incredibly kind person — it becomes natural, instinctive, organic — and it'll brighten your day. That's what we need to intentionally begin to do, every single person. It'll be a much better world.
Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Paul, thank you so much for your time.
Paul Tudor Jones
Thank you.