Nicholas Owens

Equity analyst at Morningstar covering aerospace and defence, known for valuing high-profile, hard-to-price companies through scenario-weighted discounted-cash-flow analysis.

On Prof G Markets Owens explained his $780bn fair-value estimate for SpaceX — a fraction of its ~$2.6tn market price — built as a probability-weighted blend of three scenarios across the rocket, Starlink, and AI segments, and assigned the company a narrow economic-moat rating.

Core positions

• A defensible valuation must weigh scenarios by probability rather than assume the best case; SpaceX’s market price effectively prices the moonshot outcomes at near-certainty, whereas he puts the joint odds of Starship reusability and a space-data-centre cost advantage at roughly 7%.
• The rocket and Starlink businesses have wide-moat characteristics — a deep cost advantage and economies of scale a decade ahead of rivals — but the aggressive, unproven AI investment pulls the overall moat rating down to narrow.
• Prices are set by the marginal seller; a tiny public float and looming insider lock-ups make SpaceX’s quoted price an unreliable guide to value.

In the wiki

• OpenAI's Leaked Financials, SpaceX's Valuation, and the AI Bubble — valued SpaceX via scenario-weighted DCF