Andrew Polk

Economist and China analyst. Founding partner at Trivium China, a Beijing-based macroeconomic research and advisory consultancy. Former economist at The Conference Board China Center. Advises institutional investors and multinationals on Chinese economic policy and political economy.

Appearances

• Kaiser Kuo, Eric Olander, Andrew Polk, and Lizzy Lee on the Geneva Trade Truce, the J-10C Dogfight, and China in Latin America (China Talking Points Ep 1, May 2025)
• Kaiser Kuo, Eric Olander, and Andrew Polk on China's 15th Five-Year Plan, ASEAN Realignment, and the Collapse of the Trade Truce (China Talking Points Ep 2, May 2025)

Key positions

• The “3Ds” frame: Demographics, Debt, and Deglobalisation are the three structural challenges anchoring Chinese economic policy for the next 10–20 years.
• Five-year plans are best read as a “statement of policy intent” — not binding production quotas, but an anchor everything must justify itself against, and a roadmap of regulatory tailwinds.
• Made in China 2025 is assessed domestically as a success; the 15th plan continues its thrust with a quieter communications strategy after the 2017 backlash.
• Inside the White House, factions disagree on whether tariffs and tech export controls are separable negotiating tracks; China does not accept this separation, making a durable deal structurally difficult without Xi-Trump summit engagement.